Open Topic for Historical Radiation Data Analysis for Enhanced Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) Modeling and Prediction - STTR Topic MDA26TZ04-NP002

Funding Amount:

Phase I - $314,000

Deadline to Apply:

August 19th, 2026

ITAR:

The technology within this topic is restricted under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), 22 CFR Parts 120-130, which controls the export and import of defense-related material and services, including export of sensitive technical data, or the Export Administration Regulation (EAR), 15 CFR Parts 730-774, which controls dual use items. Offerors must disclose any proposed use of foreign nationals (FNs), their country(ies) of origin, the type of visa or work permit possessed, and the statement of work (SOW) tasks intended for accomplishment by the FN(s) in accordance with the Announcement. Offerors are advised foreign nationals proposed to perform on this topic may be restricted due to the technical data under US Export Control Laws.

Objective:

This open topic seeks to develop and implement advanced analytical techniques for processing and interpreting historical radiation data (space-based and simulated) to improve the accuracy and predictive capabilities of radiation models, particularly concerning sensor performance and spacecraft survivability.

Description:

The performance and survivability of Department of War (DoW) and space systems, especially those operating in space environments, are critically affected by radiation. Radiation testing of parts are major cost and schedule drivers for DoW and space systems. This topic seeks to conduct a rigorous statistical analysis of long-term radiation trends and their impact with the goal of either reducing or justifying the need for rigorous and costly radiation testing. DoW systems must determine a part’s susceptibility to many forms of radiation including but not limited to: neutron, proton, heavy ion, displacement damage, total ionizing dose. Successful proposals may focus on all or some subset of these radiation environments and would seek innovative approaches to analyze historical radiation data from various sources in the open literature, including but not limited to:

Archived space-based radiation measurements (e.g., from past and current satellite missions).

Data from ground-based radiation testing facilities and simulation environments.

Historical performance data of space components and subsystems exposed to radiation.

Legacy data of previous test failures to analyze and attribute the event to the natural space environments.

Proposers should be able to conduct their analysis without data provided by the Missile Defense Agency.

The analysis should focus on:

Trend Identification: Identifying long-term trends and patterns in radiation effects of microelectronics. For example, the development of a-priori expectations based on part type, node size and process technology, and trends in lot-to-lot variation of radiation performance for particular devices.

Correlation Studies: Correlating historical radiation data with observed performance degradation of sensors, electronics, and other critical spacecraft components. This includes exploring the relationships between radiation dose, single event effects (SEUs), total ionizing dose (TID), and other radiation-induced phenomena, with failures or degradation of space systems.

Predictive Modeling: Developing predictive models that use historical radiation data to forecast the radiation environment impact on future and current microelectronics devices and process technologies. This may involve incorporating machine learning techniques to identify complex relationships and improve prediction accuracy.

Uncertainty Quantification: Quantifying the uncertainties associated with historical data and predictive models and assessing their implications for risk management, decision-making and design margin.

PHASE I:

Identify and acquire relevant historical radiation datasets from available sources in the open literature. Develop and implement data processing and analysis techniques, including statistical methods, machine learning algorithms, and visualization tools. Conduct preliminary correlation studies between radiation data and observed performance degradation of DoW components. Develop an initial predictive model and assess its accuracy and limitations. Provide analysis of existing data and historical data with respect to high energy events. Demonstrate the applicability of the proposed models to one or more existing DoW systems.

PHASE II:

Refine data processing and analysis techniques, incorporating new datasets and advanced algorithms.

Conduct comprehensive correlation studies, focusing on specific radiation-induced failure mechanisms and their impact on performance.

Develop and validate predictive models using independent datasets.

Quantify uncertainties and assess their impact on decision-making.

Integrate with data from other government sources, with respect to test failures, to determine if there are any connections between the events of interest and the observed trends.

PHASE III DUAL USE APPLICATIONS:

Commercialization potential exists in the medical, aviation, homeland security sector, power and automotive industries. Modern integrated circuits are increasingly more susceptible to Single-Event Effects (SEE) to the point that even non-space, terrestrial assets such as large computing centers are facing radiation effects challenges. This topic would help to assess quality control features for the selection and testing of future devices to ensure survivability in radiation environments.

Who will win?

If you can achieve the objective above better than any other company on the market, you have a very high-likelihood of success and should apply.

Who is eligible to apply?

Any company that meets the following criteria:

• For-profit company

• U.S.-owned and controlled.

• 500 or fewer employees (including affiliates)

How Can BW&CO Help?

1) End-to-end support including, strategy, writing of the full proposal, and administrative & compliance support.

2) Proposal strategy and review.

3) Administrative & compliance support.

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